‘City Killer’ asteroid approaching Earth in 2032: Is Mumbai at risk? Here’s what we know |
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Astronomers worldwide are closely monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4, a recently discovered space rock that has sparked global attention due to its potential risk to Earth. The asteroid, detected in December 2024, has been categorized as a “city killer” due to its estimated 1.5% chance (1 in 67) of impact when it makes a close flyby on December 22, 2032. Since this probability surpasses the 1% risk threshold, space agencies, including NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the China National Space Administration (CNSA), and Roscosmos, have initiated extensive tracking operations.
As per reports, scientists have simulated the possible impact corridor based on current trajectory data, suggesting that if 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it could affect major metropolitan areas, including Bogotá (Colombia), Lagos (Nigeria), and Mumbai (India). The asteroid’s size, estimated between 130 and 300 feet wide, raises concerns about localized destruction similar to a nuclear explosion. However, experts believe that the probability of impact will likely reduce over time as further observations refine its orbital path.
‘City Killer’ Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a threat to Mumbai? Know its impact and other details
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, roughly the size of a large office building. If it were to strike Earth, scientists predict two possible outcomes:
- Atmospheric disintegration: The asteroid could break apart upon entering Earth’s atmosphere, creating a high-energy airburst similar to the Tunguska event in 1908, which flattened 2,000 square kilometers of Siberian forest.
- Surface impact: If the asteroid survives atmospheric entry, it could punch a crater into the Earth’s surface, generating destruction equivalent to a detonating hydrogen bomb and devastating the surrounding area.
Even if it does not collide with Earth, some models suggest there is a small chance it could strike the Moon instead.
Simulated impact corridor and affected areas
NASA’s latest impact simulation models indicate that, in the unlikely event of a collision, the asteroid’s impact corridor stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean to South Asia. This region includes densely populated cities, such as:
- Bogotá, Colombia
- Lagos, Nigeria
- Mumbai, India
If the asteroid were to strike in one of these areas, it could cause widespread destruction, affecting millions of people.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 tracking and monitoring efforts
Given the potential risk, NASA and other space agencies have launched a collaborative monitoring effort to refine the asteroid’s trajectory. Agencies involved include:
- NASA (United States)
- European Space Agency (ESA)
- China National Space Administration (CNSA)
- Roscosmos (Russia)
Upcoming observations
Astronomers will use advanced telescopes to improve estimates of the asteroid’s size, trajectory, and impact probability. Observations will take place in March and May 2025 using:
- NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)
- Ground-based observatories worldwide
These observations will help determine whether 2024 YR4’s probability of impact will decrease, similar to past cases like Apophis, an asteroid once believed to pose a threat but later deemed non-hazardous.
Likelihood of impact and future predictions
Despite current concerns, scientists believe that the probability of impact will gradually decline to zero as more data is collected. Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the Planetary Society, stated that within the next few months to years, further calculations should confirm whether 2024 YR4 poses any real danger to Earth.
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